Different places, different stories: A study of the spatial heterogeneity of county-level fertility in China

Fri, Oct 25, 2019, 2:00 pm
Location: 
367 Wallace Hall
Audience: 
Restricted to Students, Faculty, Staff, and Postdocs only
Speaker(s): 
Sponsor(s): 
Paul and Marcia Wythes Center on Contemporary China

The rapid fertility decline in China over the past several decades has large regional variations in degrees and mechanisms. This study examines spatially varying relationships between county-level fertility levels and an array of socioeconomic and population policy indicators. It uses geo-coded population census and applies geographically weighted regression to identify place-specific relationships between county-level total fertility rate and socioeconomic and policy-related factors. The result shows that the relationships between fertility levels and commonly used social, economic, and policy indicators vary in terms of direction, magnitude, and strength. These variations are largely due to differences in local characteristics and spatial variations of population census quality. This study sets the stage for future research that will contextually analyze varying fertility rates at the subnational level in China and other countries.

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